Will the dollar hold up after the federal decisions?

Principal Occasions:

• Financial institution of Japan retains the rate of interest at 0.5% regardless of inflationary pressures, whereas the customs tariffs imposed by Trump obtain a shadow of doubt on the prospects for financial progress.

• Usdjpy maintains its stage over 146.90, whereas the US greenback index stays above 103 earlier than the Federal Open Market Committee assembly.

The US greenback index evaluation – a 3 -day time-frame (Logaretmate scale)

Supply: TradingView

From the angle of the three -day time-frame, DXY reveals a weak spot close to its lowest stage in November 2024, at about 103.30.

Nevertheless, the RSI is buying and selling at gross sales ranges beforehand seen in September 2024, December 2023, and July 2023, which preceded a outstanding restoration in DXY. Since RSI belongs to the identical ranges, there could also be a chance of a mirrored image within the US greenback monitor.

The graph displays a wrestle between technical indicators and the weak fundamental surroundings, as markets anticipate a cautious tone from the Federal Reserve in gentle of the dangers related to customs tariffs and financial slowdown.

• Hacking the extent of 103 to the underside could open the highway about 102.50 and 100.70 as attainable help ranges.

• In distinction, if the DXY settles over 103.30, the upward targets could prolong about 105 and 106.20, which can result in the reversal of the final losses within the foreign money markets.

Usdjby evaluation – 3 days time-frame (Logaretmate scale)

Supply: TradingView

Not like the US greenback index, USDJPY continues to be steadfast on the lowest stage of 2025 at 146.90, in keeping with the Fibonacci 0.610 correction stage for the upward route from September 2024 to January 2025.

This apostasy got here at the side of the restoration of the RSI Index (RSI) from the degrees of saturated saturation, which was final seen in September 2024. Nevertheless, the momentum is at present within the case of stopping beneath the resistance stage 150, because the markets are prepared for the opportunity of robust fluctuations because of the Federal Open Market Committee assembly.

• Notion of the extent of 150.20 above could improve the positive factors about 151.50, 152.20 and 154.80, which restores the development in direction of the very best ranges of 2025.

• On the downward aspect, if the USDJPY is closed underneath 146.90, a brief -term drop could happen about 143.70, a stage in keeping with Fibonacci’s 0.786 correction for the upward route between September 2024 and January 2025, in addition to with the decrease restrict of the repeated canal between January 2023 and July 2024.

writing: Razan Hilal, CMT
Comply with me on x: @rh_waves