- It strengthens the Australian dollar amid feelings in risk after postponing the mutual definitions of Trump.
- AUD may have pressure as RBA is expected to announce a large scale price on Tuesday.
- Retail sales data in the United States has increased the weakest speculation that the Federal Reserve may reduce interest rates later this year.
The Australian dollar (AUD) continues its upward momentum against US dollar (USD) for the third consecutive day on Monday, with the support of US President Donald Trump’s decision to delay the implementation of mutual definitions.
The AUD/USD pair is also estimated with the US dollar weakening (USD), as the United States’ retail sales report has sparked speculation that Federal Reserve (Fed) may reduce the benefit Rates Later this year, despite the ongoing inflation concerns.
The upper direction of the AUD/USD husband can be restricted amid increasing speculation about RBA’s RBA reduction on Tuesday. the RBA It is expected to reduce its official cash price (OCR) by 25 basis points (BPS) to 4.10 %, which is a first -class reduction in four years.
The Australian dollar is offered as the US dollar loses the weakest treasury revenues
- The US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, is still under pressure for the third consecutive session due to the weak US treasury revenues. As of writing, DXY hovers about 106.70, while US Treasury revenues for two years and 10 years are 4.26 % and 4.47 %, respectively.
- The US Statistical Office data showed on Friday that US retail sales decreased by 0.9 % in January, after an increase of 0.7 % in December (previously reported by 0.4 %). This decrease was more severe than market expectations by 0.1 % decrease.
- The inflation of the basic product price index in the United States (the United States) increased to 3.6 % year on year in January, which exceeds 3.3 % expected but just less than 3.7 % revised (previously reported by 3.5 %). These expectations have strengthened that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay the cuts until the second half of the year.
- The US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.0 % year on January, which exceeds 2.9 %. The basic consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, increased to 3.3 % from 3.2 %, outperforming expectations by 3.1 %. On a monthly basis, the main inflation jumped to 0.5 % in January of 0.4 % in December, while Core CPI rose to 0.4 % of 0.2 % during the same period.
- In his semi -annual report to Congress, Powell at Powell Bank said that Federal Reserve officials “do not need to be in a hurry” to reduce interest rates due to strength in the labor market and strong economic growth. He added that US President Donald Trump’s policies can put more rising pressure, making it difficult for the central bank to reduce interest rates.
- A Reuters poll suggests that the Federal Reserve will delay the reduction of interest rates until next quarter amid the increasing inflation concerns. Many who previously expected the March rate reduced their expectations. The majority of economists who were included in the survey between February 4 and 10 expects to reduce at least one rate by June, although opinions about exact time are still divided.
- The President of the Fladland Reserve Bank in Cleveland Peth Hamak said on Tuesday that keeping interest rates for a long time is likely to be appropriate. Hamak stressed that the patient’s approach will allow the Federal Reserve to assess economic conditions and note that the central bank is in a good position to respond to any shifts in the economy, according to Reuters.
- Feelings are still preserved in the reduction of the RBA rate intact after the new inflation data data. Consumer enlargement expectations rose to 4.6 % in February 4.0 % in January, reaching its highest level since April 2024.
The Australian dollar rises to the upper border of the emerging channel near 0.6400
The AUD/USD pair hovers near 0.6360 on Monday, and moves up in the up -to -up canal style. This indicates that the market bias is upward. In addition, the 24 -day relative index (RSI) maintains its location over the 50th mark, which enhances bullish bias.
On the upper side, the AUD/USD pair may test the upper boundaries of the emerging canal at 0.6380, followed by the psychological level of 0.6400.
Aud/USD pair can find his basic support at EMA for nine days from 0.6310, followed by EMA for 14 days of 0.6294. The collapse may lead to below these levels to weaken the price of the price in the short term, which may push the husband towards the lower boundaries of the emerging canal at the level of 0.6270.
Aud/USD: Daily Chart
Australian dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage of change in the Australian dollar (AUD) against the main currencies listed today. The Australian dollar was the strongest against the US dollar.
| US dollar | euro | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | Nzd | Chf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar | -0.10 % | -07 % | -0.32 % | -0.10 % | -0.24 % | -0.48 % | -02 % | |
| euro | 0.10 % | 0.18 % | -0.24 % | 0.09 % | -06 % | -0.28 % | 0.18 % | |
| GBP | 0.07 % | -18 % | -0.33 % | -0.09 % | -0.19 % | -0.47 % | -0.00 % | |
| JPY | 0.32 % | 0.24 % | 0.33 % | 0.20 % | 0.09 % | 0.03 % | 0.25 % | |
| CAD | 0.10 % | -0.09 % | 0.09 % | -0.20 % | -0.12 % | -37 % | 0.08 % | |
| Aud | 0.24 % | 0.06 % | 0.19 % | -0.09 % | 0.12 % | -0.23 % | 0.24 % | |
| Nzd | 0.48 % | 0.28 % | 0.47 % | -0.03 % | 0.37 % | 0.23 % | 0.46 % | |
| Chf | 0.02 % | -18 % | 0.00 % | -0.25 % | -08 % | -0.24 % | -0.46 % |
The heat map shows the percentage changes in the main currencies against each other. The basic currency is chosen from the left column, while the quotation currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage offered in the box will represent AUD (Base)/USD (Quote).
Questions and answers in Australian dollars
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a resource -rich country, the other main engine is the largest export price, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, and the largest commercial partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, the rate of growth and trade is a balance. Market morale-whether investors are eating more risky assets (risk) or searching for safe materials (risk)-is also a worker, with positive risks for AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) affects the Australian dollar (AUD) by determining the level of interest rates that Australian banks can persuade each other. This affects the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3 % by setting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates are supported compared to other main central banks, and relatively low vice versa. RBA can also use and tighten quantitative dilution to influence credit conditions, with previous AUD negative and positive to AUD.
China is the largest commercial partner in Australia, so the health of the Chinese economy is a major impact on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy does a good job, it buys more raw materials, commodities and services from Australia, raising the demand for AUD, and raising its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy does not grow at the speed available. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, they often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its wives.
Iron Ore is the largest export in Australia, as it represents 118 billion dollars annually according to data from 2021, with China as its main destination. Therefore, the price of iron ore can be an engine for the Australian dollar. In general, if the price of iron ore rises, the AUD also rises, as the total demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of iron ore decreases. Iron ore prices also tend to increase the possibility of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country gains from its exports in exchange for what it pays to its imports is another factor that can affect the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces very required after exports, its currency will obtain a value of the excess demand created from foreign buyers who seek to buy its exports in exchange for what it spends to buy imports. Therefore, the positive net trade balance enhances AUD, with the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
2025-02-17 01:45:29