- The Australian dollar is declining due to the latest Trump tariff and cautious FOMC minutes.
- The unemployment rate in Australia increased to 4.1 % in January from 4.0 % in December, as expected.
- President Trump has confirmed plans to impose a 25 % tariff on auto imports, semi -conductors, and pharmaceutical products.
The Australian dollar (AUD) extends its losses against the US dollar (USD) after issuing local recruitment data and the interest rate decision in China on Thursday. However, the AUD/USD pair faced the opposite winds with increased risk hatred due to concerns about the latest definitions of US President Donald Trump and a cautious tone in the FOOC Open Market Committee (FOMC) from the January Policy meeting.
On Thursday, the Australian Statistical Office (ABS) stated that the seasonal unemployment rate in Australia rose to 4.1 % in January from 4.0 % in December, in harmony with market expectations. In addition, the change of employment in 44,000 for January, a decrease of 60,000 revised in December (previously 56.3 thousand), but still exceeds the expectations of consensus of 20 thousand.
The Popular Bank of China (PBOC) has chosen to maintain the prices of major loans (LPRS) unchanged, with a year and five years remaining by 3.10 % and 3.60 %, respectively.
AUD faced the declining pressure after the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) reduced the official cash price (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.10 % on Tuesday – the first rate reduction in four years. Rba Michel Bullock’s ruler acknowledged the impact of higher attention Rates But he warned that it was too early to declare victory over inflation. She also emphasized the strength of the labor market and explained that the price cuts in the future are not guaranteed, despite the market expectations.
The Australian dollar is declining due to the Trump tariff, FOMC minutes
- The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the dollar for six main currencies, hovering about 107.00. Meanwhile, US Treasury revenue is 4.26 % for a two -year memo and 4.52 % for a 10 -year memo at the time of this report.
- The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meetings (FOMC) again confirmed the decision to maintain interest rates unchanged in January. Politics makers emphasized the need for more time to assess economic activity, labor market trends and inflation before considering any amendments to a price. The committee also agreed that clear signs of low inflation are necessary before the price cuts are implemented.
- President Trump confirmed that a 25 % tariff on drug imports and conductors will enter April. In addition, he emphasized that the car tariff will remain 25 %, which escalates global trade tensions.
- “So far, we can agree that Trump is doing exactly what he said.” Research in Montreal.
- The head of the Federal Reserve in Chicago, Austan Golsby, said late on Wednesday, despite the low inflation, but it is still high. Goodsbee stressed that interest rates can be reduced after inflation will be reduced to a more acceptable level.
- Mary Dali, President of San Francisco Bank, said on Tuesday that the possibilities of more price cuts in 2025 are still unconfirmed despite the general positive agent of American economic factors. The President in Philadelphia, Patrick Harker, emphasized the support of a fixed interest policy, noting that inflation has remained high and continuous in recent months.
Technical Analysis: The Australian dollar is testing EMA’s support for nine days
The AUD/USD pair hovers around 0.6330 on Thursday, and is trading inside an upward channel indicating the presence of the ups of the upscale market. The 24 -day relative strength index (RSI) remains higher than 50 years, which enhances positivity Expectations.
On the upper side, the AUD/USD pair can challenge the main psychological resistance at 0.6400, which is in line with the upper limits of the channel at 0.6410.
Immediate support is found on the SIA moving average for nine days (EMA) of 0.6326, followed by EMA for 14 days at 0.6311. A stronger support area is located near the lower border of the channel at 0.6300.
Aud/USD: Daily Chart
Australian dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage of change in the Australian dollar (AUD) against the main currencies listed today. The Australian dollar was the weakest against the Japanese yen.
| US dollar | euro | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | Nzd | Chf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar | -0.03 % | 0.00 % | -62 % | 0.04 % | 0.14 % | 0.01 % | -0.13 % | |
| euro | 0.03 % | 0.02 % | -63 % | 0.07 % | 0.16 % | 0.04 % | -0.12 % | |
| GBP | -0.00 % | -02 % | -64 % | 0.04 % | 0.13 % | 0.01 % | -0.13 % | |
| JPY | 0.62 % | 0.63 % | 0.64 % | 0.68 % | 0.77 % | 0.60 % | 0.49 % | |
| CAD | -04 % | -07 % | -04 % | -68 % | 0.11 % | -0.03 % | -16 % | |
| Aud | -0.14 % | -16 % | -0.13 % | -0.77 % | -11 % | -0.12 % | -0.28 % | |
| Nzd | -01 % | -04 % | -01 % | -0.60 % | 0.03 % | 0.12 % | -0.15 % | |
| Chf | 0.13 % | 0.12 % | 0.13 % | -0.49 % | 0.16 % | 0.28 % | 0.15 % |
The heat map shows the percentage changes in the main currencies against each other. The basic currency is chosen from the left column, while the quotation currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage offered in the box will represent the (Base)/USD (Quote).
Questions and answers in Australian dollars
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a resource -rich country, the other main engine is the largest export price, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, and the largest commercial partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, the rate of growth and trade is a balance. Market morale-whether investors are eating more risky assets (risk) or searching for safe materials (risk)-is also a worker, with positive risks for AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) affects the Australian dollar (AUD) by determining the level of interest rates that Australian banks can persuade each other. This affects the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3 % by setting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates are supported compared to other main central banks, and relatively low vice versa. RBA can also use and tighten quantitative dilution to influence credit conditions, with previous AUD negative and positive to AUD.
China is the largest commercial partner in Australia, so the health of the Chinese economy is a major impact on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy does a good job, it buys more raw materials, commodities and services from Australia, raising the demand for AUD, and raising its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy does not grow at the speed available. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, they often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its wives.
Iron Ore is the largest export in Australia, as it represents 118 billion dollars annually according to data from 2021, with China as its main destination. Therefore, the price of iron ore can be an engine for the Australian dollar. In general, if the price of iron ore rises, the AUD also rises, as the total demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of iron ore decreases. Iron ore prices also tend to increase the possibility of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country gains from its exports in exchange for what it pays to its imports is another factor that can affect the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces very required after exports, its currency will obtain a value of the excess demand created from foreign buyers who seek to buy its exports in exchange for what it spends to buy imports. Therefore, the positive net trade balance enhances AUD, with the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
2025-02-20 02:17:43
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