We and the market expect RBA To reduce the cash price by 25 pussy at the February 18 meeting. However, there is a risk that RBA provides a loud surprise in the narrow labor market and the high consumer price index. RBNZ is more likely to reduce prices by 50 bits at the February 19 meeting, with surprises. We see the upscale risks on Aud/NZD and Aud/USD, especially if the RBA surprises with Hawkish Hold, according to Standard Harterd’s Economists.
Determine the location of fat tails
“We and the market expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to reduce the price of money by 25 bits per second to 4.10 % in the February 18 meeting. However, we admit the risks of a noisy surprise by RBA, either by maintaining the money price did not change by a rate 4.35 % or by cautious guidance from Ruler Bullock at the press conference.
“On the background bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), our foundation line is for the central bank to reduce its cash price by 50 bits per second at the February 19 meeting. This step has been well contacted by the Central Bank, and we see a low possibility of surprise In any of the two directions. Economic data It is still faded, to get Rates Return to neutral (2.5-3.5 %) more quickly. “
“On the effects of FX, we see the upward risks on the AUD/NZD at the current levels, especially if RBA surprises the market with a sliced contract at the February meeting. We see different Nowadays, which should keep AUD/NZD well -backed higher than 1.11.
2025-02-17 14:30:49