- EUR/USD gives a difficult battle for the 1.0500 psychological resistance because the US dollar’s view is not certain.
- Panetta from the European Central Bank is concerned about the growth of risk that includes inflation without a 2 % target.
- US President Donald announced on Friday that he was planning to impose a tariff on imported cars.
Euro/US dollar to expand its upward move over the 1.0500 psychological resistance in the North American session on Monday. The main currency pair is a wide side as investors evaluate the potential impact of US (United States) President Donald Trump’s tariff for the euro area.
On Friday, President Trump announced that he was planning to impose a tariff on imported cars on April 2. The mutual definitions were also planned in the same period.
Market participants expect that the main impact of car fees on Germany, Japan and South Korea, which leads two exporters of cars to the United States. According to OEC data, the German economy exported 24.3 billion dollars to the United States in 2023.
During the weekend, European Central Bank (ECB) Political Maker and Governor of Italy Bank Fabio Panetta said in a speech at the annual Assiom-Forex conference in Italy that the net impact of definitions on inflation in The euro area It will be “limited, if not a little negative.”
Panetta’s views depend on the assumption that the potential weakness is in euro (Euro), due to the high customs tariffs and any revenge from Europe, will be confronted through the global economic slowdown and the repair of China the goods that the definitions have reached in European markets.
Fabio Panetta has directed Dofish monetary policy expectations, on the pretext that the prevailing danger to the old continent is “low inflation to less than 2 % in the medium term.”
The price of the euro today
The table below shows the percentage of euro change (EUR) against the main currencies listed today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss franc.
| US dollar | euro | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | Nzd | Chf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar | 0.20 % | -04 % | -51 % | 0.07 % | -0.23 % | -0.27 % | 0.19 % | |
| euro | -0.20 % | -0.09 % | -0.73 % | -0.03 % | -0.35 % | -37 % | 0.09 % | |
| GBP | 0.04 % | 0.09 % | -0.55 % | 0.06 % | -0.20 % | -0.28 % | 0.18 % | |
| JPY | 0.51 % | 0.73 % | 0.55 % | 0.60 % | 0.33 % | 0.47 % | 0.69 % | |
| CAD | -07 % | 0.03 % | -06 % | -0.60 % | -0.28 % | -0.34 % | 0.12 % | |
| Aud | 0.23 % | 0.35 % | 0.20 % | -0.33 % | 0.28 % | -02 % | 0.45 % | |
| Nzd | 0.27 % | 0.37 % | 0.28 % | -0.47 % | 0.34 % | 0.02 % | 0.46 % | |
| Chf | -0.19 % | -0.09 % | -18 % | -69 % | -0.12 % | -0.45 % | -0.46 % |
The heat map shows the percentage changes in the main currencies against each other. The basic currency is chosen from the left column, while the quotation currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you choose the euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage offered in the box will represent EUR (Base)/USD (quote).
Mobers Daily Digest Market Movers: EUR/USD hitting the Road barrier as a US dollar hitting
- EUR/USD faces pressure to extend the power of last week, as the US dollar (USD) is steadfast with caution near its lowest level in two months, published on Friday. The US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the value of Greenback for six main currencies, trades near 106.80.
- The US dollar index witnessed a sharp sale on Friday after the issuance of retail sales data in the poor United States for January. Retaire sales data, a main measure of consumer spending, decreased at a faster rate of 0.9 % per month. Economists expected that the consumer spending management would have contracted 0.1 %.
- The expectations of the US dollar were already a decrease in the immediate mutual definitions that President Trump has reviewed. On Thursday, Donald Trump asked the Ministry of Trade and Treasury to prepare a mutual tariff plan. However, investors expected that Trump would reveal the detailed mutual tariff plan immediately.
- These expectations were based on Trump’s tweet on the social truth, “three great weeks, perhaps the best ever, but today it is the big: mutual definitions !!! Make America great again !!!”, which came in the early trading hours in North America on the day Thursday.
- This week, the US dollar will be affected by speeches from a large number of Federal Reserve officials (FERED) who will direct monetary policy expectations. On the Economic Front, investors will focus on the data of the initial international procurement managers index (PMI) in February, which will be issued on Friday.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD faces pressure near 1.0500
The euro/the US dollar is struggling to break the main resistance of 1.0500 in European trading hours on Monday. The main currency pair’s looks turned into ascending because it exceeds the Si -moving average for 50 days (EMA), which is about 1,0430.
The 24 -day relative index (RSI) advances approximately 60.00. The bullish momentum will be activated if RSI (14) can maintain it above this level.
Looking down, the February 10 level of 1.0285 will serve as the main support area of the husband. On the contrary, the highest level on December 6 of 1.0630 will be the main barrier of euro bulls.
Questions and answers in US dollars
The USD (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and a “reality” currency for a large number of other countries where there is a circulating alongside local notes. It is the world’s most trading currency, which represents more than 88 % of all global foreign exchange rate, or on average $ 6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. After World War II, the United States assumed responsibility from British pound as a backup currency in the world. For most of its history, the US dollar was backed by gold, even the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971 when the golden standard went.
The most important individual factor that affects the value of the US dollar is the monetary policy, which is formed by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Federal Reserve has two states: to achieve price stability (control of control) and enhance full employment. Its primary performance to achieve these two goals is to adjust interest rates. When prices rise very quickly and inflation is 2 % higher than the Federal Reserve goal, the Federal Reserve will raise rates, which helps the value of the dollar. When inflation decreases to less than 2 % or the unemployment rate is very high, the Federal Reserve may reduce interest rates, which weighs to green.
In maximum situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more dollars and quantitative mitigation (QE). QE is the process that the Federal Reserve increases significantly from the flow of credit in a suspended financial system. It is a measure of the non -standard policy used when the credit is dry because banks will not lend to each other (for fear of failing to pay the opposite end). It is the last resort when it is unlikely to achieve interest rates simply the necessary result. The Federal Reserve is the preferred to combat the credit crisis that occurred during the great financial crisis in 2008. It includes the printing of the Federal Reserve more dollars and their use to buy US government bonds mostly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to the weakest US dollar.
The quantitative tightening (QT) is the opposite process in which the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not invest the manager from the bonds he holds in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US dollar.
2025-02-17 14:40:48