A temporary recovery in light of the continuation of the trade war

Essentially the most distinguished factors

• Crude: Maintains the assist stage at $ 55 a barrel, and faces resistance at $ 64 to make sustainable features

• Nasdak index: He bounced from its highest ranges in 2021 at 16,300 factors, and now it targets the resistance space at 19,100 factors to attain extra rises

• Subsequent financial studies: Client value index knowledge (CPI), company income, and commerce warfare developments between the US and China, which nonetheless poses a declining threat on markets

• gold: It continues to flow into close to its highest historic ranges displays the elevated demand for protected havens within the markets

The bounce of crude oil from the primary assist stage at $ 55

It was additionally indicated in my earlier articles on crude oil forecast for 2025 and the expectations of the second quarter of 2025, there was a threat to increase the losses to the essential assist stage at $ 55 a barrel after breaking the extent of $ 60. This stage turned efficient on Wednesday, coinciding with the escalation of tensions in customs tariffs between the US and China, which has now reached practically 100% on some commodities.​

Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 – Month-to-month Chart (Logaretmate scale)

Supply: TradingView

After this lower, American inventory indicators managed to remain over the primary weekly assist areas, that are according to the best ranges of December 2021 and the extreme ranges of the RSI within the sale that we now have not seen since 2020. The postponement of the 90 -day definitions had a stimulating function, which led to a pointy bounce in direction of the resistance ranges beforehand noticed on each American inventory indicators and crude oil charges.​

Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S&P 500, uncooked oil – graphs per 4 hours (Logaretmate scale)

Supply: TradingView

Whereas suspending customs definitions offered non permanent relaxation, the dangers are nonetheless in place. The commerce battle between the US and China, the continuation of the ability of gold close to its highest historic ranges, and upcoming financial studies, together with inflation knowledge from each nations, US financial institution income on Friday, and shopper confidence, proceed to threaten the sustainability of current features available in the market. At present, the markets seem to comply with clearly particular corrections earlier than the following primary catalyst.​

Crude oil forecast – weekly time-frame (Logaretmate scale)

Supply: TradingView

Cross oil has witnessed a pointy bounce of the assist stage at $ 55, which is according to Fibonacci’s correction of 0.618 for the upward development between 2020 and 2022, and confronted instant resistance on the earlier assist zone that was resistance round $ 63.80, which was established in 2021. The decisive motion might pave over $ 63.80 the best way for extra features about $ 66, $ 68, $ 69.60, and eventually $ 73.​

Then again, the decline might result in lower than $ 58 to return the extent of $ 55 to the interface. A transparent fracture with out this stage might result in extra decline of about $ 49 a barrel, which is according to the minimal lengthy -term bullish path of crude oil, as proven in my expectations for the second quarter.​

Nasdaq Index Expectations – Time Framework for Three Days (Logaretmate scale)

Supply: TradingView

The NASDAC index wore its highest stage in 2021 and Fibonacci’s correction of fifty% to the rise from October 2022 to February 2025. This apostasy coincided with an extreme momentum sign, which we now have not seen since 2020. The value is now testing a serious resistance space between 19,100 and 19,400 factors. Actually fracture and stability might open above 19,500 dots for extra features about 20,000, 20,800, 21,500, and presumably 22,000 factors.​

Nevertheless, failure to stay above 18,200 factors might expose the index to renewed threat, with the opportunity of retreating to 17,700, 17,000 and 16,300 factors. The registration of a brand new backside in 2025 beneath 16,300 factors might break the market construction and will stimulate deeper losses about 14,900-15,000 factors, according to Fibonacci’s 0.618 correction for the ups off from 2022 to 2025 and will point out a wider correction available in the market.

Written by: Razan Hilal, CMT

Proceed on x: @rh_waves